When party choice and prime minister preference point in different directions

The Progress Party (Frp) receives 31.4% in Nettavisen’s September poll. The Labour Party (Ap) receives 22%. Yet Jonas Gahr Støre is the person most respondents say they would prefer as prime minister.

31.9% choose Støre, while 27.3% choose Sylvi Listhaug. Ine Eriksen Søreide receives 12.5%. The difference between Støre and Listhaug is not statistically significant, so the poll does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that Støre has a clear lead. What we can say is that the two are relatively close. That is interesting when the balance of support between their parties looks so different.

At first glance, this may seem like a paradox. But choosing a party and choosing a preferred prime minister are two different judgements.

The poll was conducted by InFact for Nettavisen. Read Nettavisen’s coverage of the results: “Ny statsministermåling: Støre slår Listhaug tross Frp-byks”.

We vote for parties, but we also evaluate individuals

When we ask which party someone would vote for if there were a parliamentary election tomorrow, we are effectively asking voters to consider an entire political package. Political issues, priorities, ideology, previous experiences with the party and views on its political direction all come into play.

Asking who someone would prefer as prime minister is different. Here, the individual and the role itself become more prominent.

A voter may therefore feel that one party best represents their political views while still preferring a politician from another party as prime minister. This is not necessarily inconsistent. It may simply reflect the fact that voters evaluate political parties and potential heads of government according to different criteria.

The underlying figures in this poll reinforce this interpretation. Both Støre and Listhaug enjoy very strong support among their own parties’ voters. The main difference emerges outside their respective parties. Støre receives considerably more support from voters of other parties than Listhaug does.

That may be the most interesting aspect of the result.

Support beyond your own party matters

In a multi-party system such as Norway’s, few party leaders can base a claim to the prime minister’s office on the strength of their own party alone. A prime minister normally has to operate in a political landscape involving several parties, competing interests and voters who do not necessarily regard the prime minister’s own party as their first choice.

The breadth of a candidate’s support can therefore matter.

Støre’s numbers suggest that he is chosen by voters who primarily prefer other parties to a greater extent than the Labour Party’s overall support would imply. This does not necessarily mean that these voters want Labour Party policies. Other considerations may come into play when the question shifts from party to person.

Experience is one possible explanation. Støre has served as prime minister since 2021 and has extensive experience in government and national politics. Familiarity with an incumbent prime minister may influence how voters assess the role itself. Some voters may also place greater emphasis on qualities they associate with leading a government, or political distance from a candidate may matter less when choosing a preferred prime minister than when choosing a party.

These are, however, possible explanations. The prime minister poll itself does not tell us why respondents answer the way they do.

To determine whether experience, personality, political style, governing ability, a sense of stability or other qualities are driving the results, we would need to ask specifically about those factors.

This distinction is important when interpreting opinion polls. The numbers can reveal a pattern very clearly without automatically providing the explanation for that pattern.

Frp’s strength and Listhaug’s position

The result can also be viewed from the opposite perspective.

Frp has been polling at very high levels for some time. In InFact’s polls for Nettavisen, the party has remained above 30% since May, reaching 31.4% in the September poll. The Labour Party, meanwhile, is nine percentage points behind.

This demonstrates considerable political strength for both Frp and Listhaug.

Yet preference for Listhaug as prime minister does not automatically rise to the same level. This may indicate that some voters who currently choose Frp have moved towards the party primarily because of its policies and political priorities. Choosing a party does not necessarily mean that every assessment of the party’s leader changes at the same time.

The same phenomenon can work in the opposite direction. Support for Støre as prime minister is considerably higher than support for the Labour Party. He therefore appears to have a personal reach that extends beyond the party’s current voter base.

That is worth noting, particularly at a time when the party polling figures on their own paint a considerably weaker picture for Labour.

The poll also tells us something about how voters think

We often talk about shifts in voter support as though people move their entire political judgement from one party to another. The reality is usually less tidy.

Someone may agree with Frp on several current political issues, prefer Støre as prime minister and still regard a third party as their possible second choice. Another voter may support Labour while preferring someone else to lead the government. Such combinations are entirely natural in a political landscape with multiple parties and competing considerations.

This is why the underlying figures can often be at least as interesting as the headline number in an opinion poll. The overall result tells us where the parties or candidates stand. The distribution across different groups of voters can tell us more about why the political landscape looks the way it does.

In this poll, it is easy to focus on 31.9% versus 27.3%. Since the difference is not statistically significant, we should be cautious about making the lead itself the main point.

The more interesting finding lies elsewhere.

Frp can be clearly larger than the Labour Party while Støre has at least as much support as a prime ministerial candidate as Listhaug. This tells us that Norwegian voters do not necessarily equate the party they prefer with the person they would most like to see leading the government.

These are two judgements that exist side by side. And right now, they are pointing in quite different directions.