After several months of considerable shifts in voter preferences, the party landscape appears to have settled into a calmer rhythm. For the second consecutive month, there are few signs of major changes in party support. However, the latest poll reveals one important shift: the balance of power between the two political blocs has changed. While the conservative bloc held a narrow majority in the previous poll, the red-green bloc now has a solid lead – 91 versus 78 mandates.
The main explanation for this shift is the decline in support for the Liberal Party (Venstre). With a drop of 1.2 percentage points, the party falls below the parliamentary threshold in this poll – significantly impacting the mandate distribution. Additionally, the Progress Party (FrP) sees a 2.8 percentage point decrease, without corresponding gains among the other conservative parties. If this trend continues – with both the Liberal Party and the Christian Democratic Party (KrF) remaining below the threshold – it will be increasingly difficult for the conservative bloc to secure a majority in the upcoming election.
Labour Party (29.5%): Stability at a high level
The Labour Party (AP) continues to solidify its position as the country’s largest party, polling around 30 percent – a level it has maintained since the government breakup with the Centre Party, the return of Jens Stoltenberg, and the formation of a new government in early February.
It is noteworthy that the party has managed to maintain such high support. Many political analysts had expected a gradual decline following the strong start of the new Labour-led government, but this has yet to materialize. The so-called ‘Stoltenberg effect’ does not appear to be a short-lived phenomenon. Moreover, perceptions of the party’s ability to govern in turbulent times likely play a role in this sustained support.
The Labour Party performs significantly better among women (37.2%) and voters aged 65 and above (39.5%). The party also enjoys strong loyalty: 73.8% of its 2021 voters say they would vote the Labour Party again. It gains most from former Centre Party and Liberal Party voters and loses few to other parties.
Progress Party (21.3%): Decline, but strong loyalty
The Progress Party (FrP) is one of only two parties showing a statistically significant change since the last poll, dropping by 2.8 percentage points. The party still shows a clear demographic divide, with higher support among men (31.1%) and voters aged 18–29 (35.8%). This contrasts sharply with the Labour Party’s stronger support among women and older voters.
Despite the decline, The Progress Party has the most loyal voter base in the country: 82.3% of its 2021 voters plan to vote for the party again. Interestingly, the Labour Party is the party that attracts the most voters from The Progress Party (5.3%), in addition to 8% of former Progress Party voters now being undecided or not intending to vote.
Conservative Party (18.1%): Struggling to attract new voters
The Conservative Party (Høyre) has yet to reverse its weak trend. Although there is a slight uptick in support, it is within the margin of error and therefore not statistically significant.
The party’s support is evenly distributed across gender, age and geography. However, only 61.3% of its 2021 voters plan to vote for the Conservative Party again. Most voter losses are to the undecided/non-voting group (10.8%) and to the Labour Party (5.3%). The Conservative Party is also struggling to attract voters from other parties – including its closest ally on the right, the Progress Party.
Centre Party (6.6%): Stable at a low level
Since exiting government, the Centre Party (SP) has not managed to rebuild voter trust and remains consistently between 6 and 7%. The party performs particularly poorly among young voters (2%) and in Oslo (1.8%) but fares better in Central Norway with 12.5% support.
The Centre Party also suffers from low voter loyalty – only 41.5% of its 2021 voters say they would vote for the party again. Most losses are to the Labour Party (10.8%) and the Conservative Party (4.6%).
Socialist Left Party (5.8%): Stable, but weak voter dynamics
The Socialist Left Party (SV) has remained stable around 6% over the past few months, without significant changes. Its voter base is evenly distributed across the population. Voter loyalty is relatively low (52.1%), and the party attracts few new voters. Only 1.2% of the Labour Party’s former voters have shifted to The Socialist Left Party.
Liberal Party (3.1%): Falls below the threshold
The Liberal Party falls clearly below the 4% parliamentary threshold in this poll, with a statistically significant decline of 1.2 percentage points. This shift has a major impact on the overall balance of power, causing the conservative bloc to lose the narrow majority it held in the previous poll.
The Liberal Party shows low voter loyalty (44.4%) and loses many voters to the Labour Party (8.9%) and the undecided/non-voting group (4.4%). The party also struggles to attract new voters from other parties.
Red Party (5.4%): Still above the threshold
The Red Party (Rødt) remains above the threshold in this poll. It performs strongest among voters aged 30–44, with 12.6% support in this group. While the party has moderate voter loyalty (68.9%), it is not attracting many new voters from other parties.
Green Party (3.1%): Urban appeal, but still below the threshold
The Green Party (MDG) continues to poll well below the 4% threshold. It maintains strong support in Oslo (7.9%) but remains weak nationally. Voter loyalty is relatively low (52.6%), and the party is not attracting a significant number of new voters.
Christian Democrats (3.3%): Under pressure
The Christian Democrats (KrF) poll at only 3.3%, with particularly poor results in Eastern Norway (0.9%). While the party’s voter loyalty is moderate (62.2%), it is not managing to attract new voters from other parties – leaving it in a vulnerable position.
Conclusion
While the overall picture suggests stability in the party landscape, the shift in the balance of power between the blocs is a noteworthy development. If the Liberal Party and the Christian Conservative remain below the threshold and the Progress Party continues to decline, the conservative bloc will face significant challenges heading into the election. Meanwhile, the Labour Party is demonstrating remarkable stability and voter retention, reinforcing its position as the largest party in Norway.
Still, even though this poll shows clear support for the red-green bloc in terms of mandates, much can change before election day. Minor shifts in voter preferences could move the smaller parties above or below the threshold – significantly affecting the mandate distribution. The Liberal Party appears to be a key player in this dynamic. Should the party manage to cross the 4% mark, the balance of power between the political blocs in Norway could once again become razor-thin.
Vegard Jarness
PhD and Senior Consultant
vegard@infact.no
About the survey
| Conducted by | InFact AS |
| Population | Nationwide, residents aged 18+ |
| Number of interviews | 1,081 |
| Weights | By gender, age, geography, and 2021 general election vote |
| Margin of error | +/- 1.1 to 3.0 percentage points |
| Method | Automated telephone interviews (IVR) |
| Fieldwork period | April 1, 2025 |
