The latest nationwide opinion poll we have conducted for Nettavisen shows that shifts among voters do not necessarily change the balance of power between the political blocs.
The Progress Party (FrP) is surging forward and is now almost as large as the Labour Party (Ap). At the same time, the Conservative Party (Høyre) is struggling significantly. As things stand, the centre-right parties are largely stealing voters from each other.
Meanwhile, the Red-Green bloc as a whole is doing well and secures a clear parliamentary majority — 88 seats versus 81. The fact that the Christian Democratic Party (KrF) again falls below the electoral threshold and loses voters to the Labour Party, further strengthens the negative trend for the centre-right.
Progress for the Progress Party — but mainly at the Conservatives’ expense
The Progress Party (FrP) emerges as the clear winner of this poll, with solid support of 23.9%. The party has grown by a significant 2.9 percentage points since the previous poll and is now breathing down the Labour Party’s neck as the second-largest party.
As before, support for the Progress Party is particularly strong among men, where 30.9% say they would vote for the party, compared to only 16.3% among women. Among young voters aged 18–29, support is as high as 35.1%, indicating broad appeal in younger age groups.
The Progress Party also shows impressive voter loyalty — a full 83.2% of the party’s voters from the last parliamentary election say they will vote for the party again. The party attracts as much as 29.3% of former Conservative Party voters, as well as smaller shares from the Liberal Party (Venstre) (6.7%) and the Labour Party (3.9%).
The Conservative Party in headwind
For the Conservative Party (Høyre), the downturn continues. The party is measured at only 14.8%, the weakest result InFact has recorded since 2009. Voter loyalty is a modest 53%, and the party is leaking significantly to the Progress Party. As much as 29.3% of the Conservative Party’s former voters have switched to the Progress Party, while others move to non-voters (8.1%) and the Labour Party (3.0%).
The reverse flows are much more modest, with only small gains from non-voters (4.9%) and the Progress Party (2.7%). The weak voter loyalty and significant leakage to the Progress Party now make the Conservatives appear as a clearly weakened player on the centre-right.
Christian Democrats back below the threshold
The Christian Democratic Party (KrF) again falls below the electoral threshold with 3.2% support. This is bad news for the centre-right bloc, which thus loses vital parliamentary seats.
The party particularly struggles to mobilise younger voters, while core voters in older age groups are also not sufficiently rallying behind the party. A small bright spot is support of 7.5% in Western Norway, but even there the numbers are weaker than before.
The Christian Democrats do have relatively strong voter loyalty (69.4%) but are struggling significantly to attract new voters. At the same time, the party loses 5.6% of its former voters to the Labour Party — a clear example of how The Christian Democrats contributes to weakening the centre-right bloc.
The Liberal Party keeps its head above water
The Liberal Party (Venstre) ends up with 4.4%, thus staying somewhat safely above the electoral threshold. The party performs best in Oslo, with 8.3% support, but struggles in other regions.
Voter loyalty is low (only 44.4%), and the party loses a significant 6.7% of its former voters to the Progress Party. A bright spot for the Liberals is that they attract 12.8% of former Green Party (MDG) voters.
Labour Party stable, but weaker than earlier peaks
The Labour Party (Ap) lands at 25.2%. This is clearly weaker than the peak results of over 30% earlier this year. The party still does well among older voters over 65 (27.0%) but struggles more to engage younger voters.
Voter loyalty is moderate (66.4%). The Labour Party attracts voters from several parties — including 12.0% from the Liberal Party, 6.4% from the Red Party (Rødt) and smaller shares from the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party and the Conservatives. At the same time, the Labour Party also loses some voters to both the Progress Party and the Conservatives.
Centre Party still struggling
The Centre Party (Sp) is measured at 7.2%. This is a slight increase from the previous poll, but within the margin of error, and support is almost halved compared to the 2021 election result.
The party is strongest in Central Norway (15.6%) but performs poorly in Oslo (1.5%). Voter loyalty is low (40.6%), and the party loses particularly to the Labour Party (a full 12.0%), but also to the Conservatives and the Socialist Left Party (SV).
Socialist Left and Red Party stable — Green Party below the threshold
The Socialist Left Party (SV) remains stable at 7.9%, roughly the same as in the 2021 election. The party performs better among women (10.9%) than men (5.1%) and is also doing well among younger voters. Voter loyalty is weak (52.0%), but the party attracts a fair share of voters from the Green Party (23.1%).
The Red Party (Rødt) is at 6.1%, with strongest support among 30–44-year-olds (10.3%). Voter loyalty is moderate (66.0%), but the party loses some voters to the Labour Party. It has been a long time since the Red Party has been below the threshold, and the party appears poised to play a decisive role when parliamentary seats are distributed between the blocs after this autumn’s election.
The Green Party (MDG) continues to struggle and is measured at a weak 2.8%. Voter loyalty is very low (25.6%), and the party particularly loses voters to the Socialist Left Party and the Liberal Party.
Conclusion: Red-Green majority — centre-right parties steal from each other
The Progress Party is gaining momentum, but this comes largely at the expense of the Conservatives and other centre-right parties. At the same time, the Christian Democrats again fall below the threshold, and the centre-right as a whole is performing relatively poorly.
On the Red-Green side, the Labour Party remains relatively stable, while the Socialist Left and Red Party hold firm. Altogether, this gives the Red-Green bloc a clear majority of 88 seats, compared to 81 for the centre-right.
With this current trend — where the centre-right parties mainly steal voters from each other — the Red-Green majority appears relatively secure this month. If the centre-right is to reclaim the majority, strong results from the Progress Party alone will not be enough. If the Conservatives continue to struggle and the Christian Democrats remain below the threshold, the prospects for a centre-right government look bleak.
Vegard Jarness
PhD and senior consultant
vegard@infact.no
You can also read Nettavisen’s article where the numbers are commented on by election researchers and political parties.
