Norwegians’ party preferences remain steady after this autumn’s parliamentary election. In our latest poll for Nettavisen, there are barely any changes since election day. No party moves outside the margin of error, and the distribution of seats is almost identical to the election result. The only small difference is one additional seat in favour of the red–green bloc, which would now hold 89 versus 80 seats.
The two largest parties – the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) and the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) – continue to dominate. Together they attract more than half of all voters, while several of the smaller parties still struggle to regain footing after the election.
Although the overall picture appears stable, there are still movements beneath the surface. Many voters have switched parties since election day, but the losses and gains largely cancel each other out. The result is a political landscape in balance.
Labour Party: Still the Largest
The Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) remains the country’s largest party with 28.8 percent, about the same as on election day. Labour is particularly strong among women (34.7%) and voters aged over 65 (37.1%). The party enjoys high voter loyalty (88.1%) and gains most from the Socialist Left Party (SV), the Green Party (MDG) and Red (Rødt), while losing some support to abstainers.
Progress Party: Maintaining Momentum
The Progress Party (Fremskrittpartiet) follows closely behind with 25.3 percent, maintaining its momentum after a strong election result. Loyalty is high (90.3%), and the party performs best among men (33.2%). It gains the most voters from the Conservative Party (Høyre) – and loses fewer in return.
Conservative Party: Still Struggling
The Conservative Party (Høyre) stands at 13.9 percent and continues to struggle after a weak election. The party performs best among voters aged 45–64 (18.8%), with loyalty at 79.7%. Høyre loses voters to both Labour and the Progress Party, while inflows from other parties remain limited.
Red Party: Holding Steady
Red (Rødt) scores 5.6 percent and is particularly strong in Northern Norway (13.4%). Loyalty remains high (85.5%), but the party loses some voters to Labour.
Socialist Left Party: Stable Support
The Socialist Left Party (SV) holds at 5.5 percent, roughly the same as in the election. The party performs best among women (8.2%) and young voters (10.0% among those aged 18–29), and weakest among voters aged 45–64 (2.4%). The Socialist Left Party loses some support to Labour but retains a loyal and stable core.
Green Party: Stable, but Losing to Labour
The Green Party (MDG) stands at 5.5 percent, remaining stable after a solid election result. MDG performs best in Oslo (11.1%) and shows good voter loyalty (82.4%), though it is losing some voters to Labour.
Centre Party: Still Facing Headwinds
The Centre Party (Senterpartiet) polls at 4.8 percent and performs particularly poorly in Oslo. Loyalty is relatively good (72.9%), but a significant share of its former voters have become uncertain – 16.9% say they do not know which party they would choose next time. This suggests some are reconsidering their options.
Christian Democratic Party: Stable Above the Threshold
The Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti) stands at 4.6 percent, about the same as on election day. After fighting to stay above the 4 percent threshold during the campaign, the party now appears to have stabilised. The Christian Democrats have the most loyal voter base (90.9%) and performs particularly well on the west coast (8.2%). Movements of voters to and from other parties are minimal.
Liberal Party: Struggling Heavily
The Liberal Party (Venstre) is down to 2.8 percent, well below the threshold. It has the lowest voter loyalty of all (62%) and loses the most voters to the Progress Party. After a disappointing result in September, The Liberal Party now seems to face even greater challenges in retaining its supporters.
Minor Parties: Decline
The smaller parties collectively fall by 1.2 percentage points, a change exceeding the margin of error. As many as 22 percent of voters who supported minor parties in the election are now undecided. This suggests many feel their vote had little influence on the outcome – and are now sitting on the fence.
Conclusion: A Calm Political Aftermath
The October poll paints a picture of a political landscape at rest. Voters largely stand by their choices from the autumn election, and the two largest parties – Labour and the Progress Party – consolidate their positions as the main forces in Norwegian politics.
The red–green bloc retains a clear advantage, and for now, there is little to suggest that the balance of power will shift significantly anytime soon
Vegard Jarness
PhD and senior consultant
vegard@infact.no
You can also read Nettavisen’s article where the numbers are commented on by election researchers and political parties.
