After the parliamentary election, the first opinion polls showed only minor voter movements. The political landscape appeared stable, and the governing parties held their ground. But after the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) presented its state budget, the picture has changed dramatically. Criticism over broken promises, retreats in several key policy areas, and a series of unfortunate media stories have had clear consequences.
In InFact’s latest poll, conducted for Nettavisen, the centre-right parties now hold a clear majority of parliamentary seats. If this were the actual election result, the Conservative Party (Høyre), the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet), the Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti), and the Liberal Party (Venstre) would together win 91 seats, compared to 78 for the red-green bloc. The main explanation lies in Labour’s sharp decline and the Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) now falling below the electoral threshold. At the same time, the poll shows strong results for the Progress Party and clear gains for the Conservatives.
Labour Party: Dramatic Fall
The Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) receives 22.3%, a dramatic drop of 5.7 percentage points since the election and 6.5 points since our previous poll. Voter loyalty is remarkably weak, at only 67%, and many former Labour voters are now undecided.
The poor result must be seen in light of the budget process, where the party has faced accusations of broken promises and lack of direction in key issues. The poll reflects uncertainty among former core voters.
Losses are spread across several parties. Support is clearly higher among women (27.5%) than men (17.8%), and the party performs best among older voters aged 65 and above (29.0%).
Progress Party: Back as the Largest Party
The Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) performs strongly with 27.1%, making it by far the largest party in the country. Although the 1.8-point increase since October is within the margin of error, this is still a very good result for Frp.
As usual, the party performs particularly well among men (36.1%) and young voters aged 18–29 (37.3%). Loyalty is very high (87.8%), and Frp also attracts voters from the Christian Democrats, the Conservatives, and smaller parties outside Parliament. The party thus appears as the most distinct protest party on the centre-right.
Conservative Party: Light Ahead?
The Conservative Party (Høyre) receives 16.9%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points since the previous poll. This marks a welcome upturn for the party after a weak election result and a challenging period.
The Conservatives perform particularly well among middle-aged voters (45–64 years: 24.3%) and in Oslo (25.5%). Loyalty is high (82.3%), and the party also gains voters across the bloc boundary – especially from Labour. This suggests that the tide may be turning for the Conservatives, and that a new leadership could begin with some positive momentum.
Christian Democratic Party: Steady Above the Threshold
The Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig folkeparti) receives 4.3%, remaining above the electoral threshold. The level is stable compared to both the election and the previous poll. The party is strongest in Western Norway (7.4%), with relatively solid loyalty (73.2%), though it loses some voters to the Progress Party.
Liberal Party: Uphill Struggle
The Liberal Party (Venstre) stands at 3.7%, identical to its election result and still below the threshold. Loyalty is low (63.9%), and the party both loses and gains voters in multiple directions. Venstre thus remains a small but stable centrist party, with no clear signs of change in overall support.
Centre Party: Still Struggling
The Centre Party (Senterpartiet) registers 5.9% – stable, but historically low. The party performs poorly in Oslo but better elsewhere in Eastern Norway (9.3%). Loyalty is relatively good (74.5%), but the Centre Party still appears to be in a consolidation phase.
The party has strongly criticised the government over alleged broken promises related to the draft state budget. This has clearly hurt Labour, but without benefiting the Centre Party itself.
Socialist Left Party: Standing Still
The Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Venstreparti) gets 4.9%, roughly unchanged from both the election and the previous poll. The party performs best in Oslo (11.3%), but suffers from low loyalty (58.2%). The Socialist Left Party loses several voters to the Red Party (Rødt) and Labour, preventing it from growing – despite having recently positioned itself as a clear critic of the government’s budget priorities.
Red Party: Gaining Momentum
The Red Party (Rødt) reaches 7.4%, a clear increase from both the election (+2.1 points) and the previous poll (+1.8 points). Loyalty is high (86.5%), and the party draws many voters from the Socialist Left Party. The Red Party thus emerges as the leading opposition party on the left.
Green Party: Back Below the Threshold
The Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) stands at 3.7%, down 1.8 points from the previous poll and thus below the threshold. The party performs best in Oslo (8.5%), but has weak loyalty (65.2%) and is clearly losing national support. The decline suggests that environmental issues currently play a smaller role on the political agenda.
Conclusion
The poll marks a clear shift in the political mood in Norway. After a budget proposal marked by internal disagreement, mistrust, and communication problems, the Labour Party suffers a heavy fall, taking the red-green majority down with it. Meanwhile, the Progress Party and the Conservatives show strength and emerge as the clear winners on the centre-right.
If this were the election result, the centre-right bloc would hold a majority with 91 seats to 78, and the Progress Party would be the largest party in Norway. Voter movements paint a new political picture – with a fragmented centre, a strengthened right, and a left clearly losing ground.
Vegard Jarness
PhD and Head of Analysis
vegard@infact.no
You can also read Nettavisen’s article where the numbers are commented on by election researchers and political parties.
