InFact’s May poll, conducted for Nettavisen, shows yet another month of remarkable stability in voter preferences. Taking the margins of error into account, there are no statistically significant changes for any of the parties.
For the second month in a row, the red-green bloc holds a parliamentary majority – 90 seats to 79 – though this majority is, notably, dependent on support from the Red Party (Rødt).
The poll also reveals continued challenges for several parties on the centre-right, particularly the Christian Democratic Party (KrF) and the Liberal Party (Venstre), both of which remain well below the electoral threshold.
Labour Party (29.0%): Still the largest party
The Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) remains on a consistently high level, with support just shy of 30 percent – a level it has maintained since the dissolution of the coalition with the Centre Party (Senterpartiet). Continued high support suggests that the effects of the split and former Prime Minister Stoltenberg’s return still resonate positively. Voters’ confidence in Labour’s ability to lead in uncertain times is likely another contributing factor.
The party draws broad, demographically even support. 71% of Labour voters from the 2021 election say they would vote for the party again. Labour gains voters from non-voters in 2021 (13%), as well as from the centre-right, particularly the Liberal Party (Venstre, 9%) and to a lesser extent the Conservative Party (Høyre, 5%). However, 6% of former Labour voters now support the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet), and 12% say they are undecided or would not vote.
Progress Party (21.2%): Still the largest on the right
The Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) continues to lead the right and retains the most loyal voter base of any party – 83% of 2021 voters remain. Support is highest among men (28%) and in Southern Norway (29%), while lower in Oslo (9%). The Progress Party is losing some voters to the Conservatives (7%) and Labour (5%), and 8% of its 2021 voters are now undecided or would abstain.
Conservative Party (18.6%): Still facing challenges
The Conservatives (Høyre) are polling at 18.6%, still trailing behind the Progress Party. The party has lower voter loyalty (60%) than both Labour and the Progress Party and loses voters to both Labour (6%) and the undecided (9%). On the positive side, it gains support from the Progress Party and the Centre Party (both 7%). Support is demographically even, with no significant differences by gender, age or geography.
Socialist Left Party (7.3%): Strong among younger and urban voters
The Socialist Left Party (SV) remains stable around 7%, performing particularly well among voters aged 18–29 (12%) and in Oslo (15%). Loyalty has improved since the previous poll (65% vs. 52%), but the party continues to attract few new voters.
Centre Party (5.8%): Struggles to win back voters
The Centre Party (Senterpartiet) is unable to regain momentum this month. Support is particularly weak in Oslo (below 1%) but stronger among voters over 65 (12%). Voter loyalty is very low – only 36% of its 2021 voters would choose the party again. Voter leakage goes in both directions, with 7% now moving to the Conservatives.
Red Party (5.5%): A key player for the red-green majority
The Red Party (Rødt) remains well above the 4% threshold. Its voter base is demographically broad, but loyalty is relatively low (58%). The Red Party plays a pivotal role in securing the red-green majority in this poll.
Liberal Party (3.0%): Still below the threshold
The Liberal Party (Venstre) remains below the 4% threshold and struggles especially among older voters (just 0.5% support among those aged 65+). Loyalty is low (43%), and the party is losing voters to both Labour (9%) and the Progress Party (5%).
Christian Democratic Party (3.0%): Value-based messaging not paying off
The Christian Democratic Party (Krf) polls at 3.0%, remaining below the threshold despite high visibility following its national convention and clear conservative stances in lifestyle politics. One bright spot is Mid-Norway, where the party reaches 7% support. Loyalty stands at a moderate 57%, with little influx of new voters.
Green Party (2.8%): Still facing headwinds
The Green Party (MDG) continues to poll well below the threshold at 2.8%. Loyalty is low (44%), and the party is losing more voters than it gains. Notably, 3% of its 2021 voters now support The Progress Party – a small but symbolically significant shift.
Conclusion
This poll confirms high stability in party support – with no statistically significant changes since the previous month. Labour strengthens its position as clearly the largest party, and the red-green bloc retains a parliamentary majority. However, this majority is dependent on the Red Party – which has indicated it will set clear conditions for supporting a Labour-led government.
On the right, the Progress Party continues to lead, while the Conservatives face challenges both in voter retention and recruitment. The Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party remain below the threshold, contributing to the centre-right bloc’s current lack of majority.
Vegard Jarness
PhD and senior consultant
vegard@infact.no
Read the full coverage and party responses in the Nettavisen article.
